So it seems that the civil war in Libya is now in its closing stages, with the untrained militia under the command of the National Transitional Council now 15 miles from the capital, closing in from all directions at once. Operation Mermaid Dawn, as the rebels call it, is now in effect, being coordinated in direct conjunction with NATO, rebel commanders in Benghazi, and armed uprisings inside of Tripoli itself.
Gaddafi, being the psychotically narcissistic genius that he is, refuses to admit that defeat is inevitable. Perhaps, through some unfortunate shift in events, I will personally be eating the word 'inevitable' as he once again finds a way to ward of both the rebels and NATO, as he has been doing with waning, yet unexpected and, admittedly, candidly impressive effectiveness for the past 6 or 7 months.
Either way, rebel forces have recently captured a small town on the outskirts of the capital called Maia, killing an estimated 31 pro-Gaddafi soldiers and capturing around 42 others. Alongside this, they have also captured a key military base and seized a jackpot of weaponry and armaments that will inevitably be added to the stock-pile that will soon be allotted to the final push against their former dictator and his guns-for-hire.
How long Gaddafi's mercenaries will continue to fight and die on his behalf is unknown; their morale is more liable to be shattered as a result of money being their only real motivation and incentive, as opposed to the rebel fighters who, despite their inferior training, are fighting for freedom, their homeland, and to assure that the sacrifices already made were not made in vain.
I'm willing to bet that the civil war in Libya will be over within 2 weeks to a month- perhaps a month and a half, maximum.
In another area afflicted by the uprisings of the Arab Spring movement, many peaceful protesters lie in bloody, mangled heaps on the streets of the ancient Syrian city of Damascus. The dictatorial President, Bashar Al-Assad, has been ordering continued crackdowns utilizing excessive force, such as snipers stationed on roof-tops whom are tasked with firing upon protesters or suspected dissidents as they appear on the streets, in conjunction with armed forces on the ground who are accompanied by heavy armor and artillery strikes. Al-Assad continues to claim that the uprisings have been engineered by foreign terrorist groups, and as such, should be put-down in the same way a full-fledged terrorist assault would be.
Such a violent and uncalled for response to peaceful political unrest, regardless of promises of reform and elections, have undoubtedly alienated Al-Assad not only from the outside world, but also from the entirely of his own people, pitting them clearly against him regardless of his potential illusions to the contrary.
Regardless of how much longer he and his regime can feasibly hold-out, he has irreversibly spelt-out his own self-destruction in the blood of his people.
It seems unlikely, at this moment in time, that there will be any foreign military intervention into Syrian affairs, regardless of their brutality and political volatility. Between Libya, Afghanistan, and the continued operations in Iraq, neither the United States nor NATO have shown any wish or intention to physically pit themselves against Al-Assad and his 'democratic' regime. One part of me doesn't blame them, while another part asks 'what made the affairs of Libya more of a humanitarian priority than those of Syria?'
But I neglect the rest of the Arab Spring movement in asking why one takes priority over the other, when in fact, Libya was the only conflict to take priority over Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria.
It's probably due to Saudi Arabian intervention in Bahrain on the side of the monarchy, assisting in the suppression of the uprisings in the area, meaning that the United States, as a close ally of Saudi Arabia due to it being one of their largest suppliers of oil in the area and a militarily strategic location within the Middle East, has assisted in the West's decision to turn a blind eye to the situation in the Persian Gulf.
Sometimes, interdependence can be lethal. Especially in the arena of international affairs.
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